US economy

US stock market analysisTrade WarJapanUS economyWarren Buffett1. IMPORTANT WEEKLY ANALYSISThe FedUnemploymentGoldUS debt crisisINVESTMENT PORTFOLIOCentral BanksGermanyThe Federal ReserveUS public debtWEEKLY MARKET RECAPUS Job MarketUS deficitWorld EconomyS&P 500tradingSilverDebt
US economyUS economy
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⚠️The US private sector employment is in a recession

⚠️The US private sector employment is in a recession

US labor market trends are heading in the undesired direction

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⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: US money supply hit a new record

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: US money supply hit a new record

The US M2 money supply is growing, but its rate of growth has slowed relative to the long-term trend

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⚠️The US economy has never been more dependent on the wealthiest Americans

⚠️The US economy has never been more dependent on the wealthiest Americans

The top 10% accounts now for roughly half of all consumer spending in America

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US economyUS economy
+1+1
🚨US Q1 2025 GDP was revised lower

🚨US Q1 2025 GDP was revised lower

Consumer spending last quarter was the weakest since the 2020 Crisis

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US economyUS economy
+1+1
⚠️Leading indicators are again signalling a recession in the US

⚠️Leading indicators are again signalling a recession in the US

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is down ~16% from its peak.

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US economyUS economy
+2+2
⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: China's official holdings of US Treasuries dropped to the lowest in 16 years

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: China's official holdings of US Treasuries dropped to the lowest in 16 years

However, China is likely owning $300-$700 billion through Belgium and Luxembourg.

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US economyUS economy
+1+1
🚨US economic activity is deteriorating

🚨US economic activity is deteriorating

The US Economic Surprise index dropped to a 9-month low.

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+1+1
⚠️Americans have rarely been this pessimistic about the job market

⚠️Americans have rarely been this pessimistic about the job market

Americans assessment of the labor market hit a record low

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US economyUS economy
+2+2
⚠️The US job market is set to deteriorate

⚠️The US job market is set to deteriorate

One leading indicator suggests further weakness in the US labor market

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US economyUS economy
+3+3
⚠️US job gains were likely OVERSTATED by ~900,000 in 2024:

⚠️US job gains were likely OVERSTATED by ~900,000 in 2024:

Massive job downward revisions will continue in the US

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+1+1
🚨US CEOs' confidence is falling at a record pace

🚨US CEOs' confidence is falling at a record pace

Are more layoffs coming in the US?

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US consumers are increasingly unable to cover emergency expenses

US consumers are increasingly unable to cover emergency expenses

Inflation and prices are the main Americans' financial challenges

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