⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Massive revisions are coming to the US job market

If revisions materialize, we will see negative payrolls growth

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Global Markets Investor
August 23, 2025

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The BLS is expected to revise down US job numbers by 550,000 to 950,000 for the 12 months ending March 2025 on September 9, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.

This would be the largest 12-month downward revision in 15 years. As a result, the total downward revision over 2 years would reach 1.5 million jobs.

This implies payroll growth was overstated by a whopping 45,000 to 80,000 jobs per month. This is in addition to the already revised five months of job data this year. If we apply this to the three-month average job growth of 35,000, it turns out the US economy could have actually lost as many as 45,000 jobs per month on average over the last three months.

Full analysis of the US job market can be found below.

⚠️The US labor market suggests the economy is in a recession

Massive downward job revisions continue, and it is not over yet

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-labor-market-suggests-the-economy-is-in-a-recession

The Fed is still waiting despite slowing economy

No rate cut, no clarity on what's next, the Fed is going to be too late as always

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-fed-is-still-waiting-despite-slowing-economy

🚨 US stock market euphoria reaches Dot-Com Bubble levels

Do market sentiment and investor behavior signal a warning?

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stock-market-euphoria-reaches-dot-com-bubble-levels

🚨US consumer financial stress reached critical level

US consumer, the major driver of the economy is pulling back on spending, as if there is a recession

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-consumer-financial-stress-reached-critical-level

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