If revisions materialize, we will see negative payrolls growth
Are investors getting overexcited?
Healthcare, college, housing and food expenses have outpaced average inflation since 2000
Massive downward job revisions continue, and it is not over yet
US consumers have never been more indebted:
Male college grads and non-grads are now unemployed at the same rate
Are tariffs having a significant impact on US prices?
Is the short US Dollar trade overcrowded?
The share of working Americans not getting pay raises is increasing
US labor market trends are heading in the undesired direction
At the same time, major central bank are reducing their balance sheets
There is no consensus among the Fed members regarding the future rates path
