US stock market analysis

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⚠️⚠️The US and Iran have agreed to a 2-week ceasefire

⚠️⚠️The US and Iran have agreed to a 2-week ceasefire

The worst-case scenario is off the table for now

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⚠️The private credit exodus is accelerating:

⚠️The private credit exodus is accelerating:

The walls are closing in on private credit at a record pace

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How are institutional investors positioned in this market?

How are institutional investors positioned in this market?

Some supplemental data on institutional activity in the market, following the posts in Sunday's weekly recap.

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!!️Market pressure on Trump to de-escalate the Iran War is at extreme levels

!!️Market pressure on Trump to de-escalate the Iran War is at extreme levels

Will a verbal intervention be enough to calm the markets?

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How has the S&P 500 historically performed around geopolitical oil shocks?

How has the S&P 500 historically performed around geopolitical oil shocks?

How have previous energy crises played out for the market?

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⚠️ President Trump has ordered a 5-day pause on all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure

⚠️ President Trump has ordered a 5-day pause on all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure

The next 5 days could determine the trajectory of this war and global markets.

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🚨Wall Street is the most hedged in years, yet US stocks refuse to selloff sharply

🚨Wall Street is the most hedged in years, yet US stocks refuse to selloff sharply

What is happening here?

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Investors are racing to pull money out of private credit funds

Investors are racing to pull money out of private credit funds

How does this resolve?

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⚠️The US private credit exodus is accelerating:

⚠️The US private credit exodus is accelerating:

Will the broader market notice?

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The IEA has proposed the largest emergency oil release from strategic reserves in history

The IEA has proposed the largest emergency oil release from strategic reserves in history

The issue is this will not solve the oil supply crisis

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🔴 Systematic funds are sellers of equities in every scenario

🔴 Systematic funds are sellers of equities in every scenario

What happens next in the US stock market?

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⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Is the US tech bubble bursting?

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Is the US tech bubble bursting?

Technology stocks are experiencing historic underperformance

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