⚠️The US labor market is in a recession

The job reports for September and October have not been released due to the government shutdown, but private data show a grim picture of the labor market.

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Global Markets Investor
November 06, 2025

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The US job market is going through a period of uncertainty as the longest government shutdown on record, which began on October 1, 2025, has now lasted 35 days, surpassing the previous record of 34 days set in December 2018.

The shutdown has already disrupted the release of both the September jobs report and the October report, which was originally scheduled for November 7. These Bureau of Labor Statistics reports are among the most closely watched economic indicators, especially as the job market has significantly worsened over the last several months and the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision is set for December 10.

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Therefore, in the absence of official data, reliable private-sector employment indicators can offer valuable insight into the state of the US job market, which are examined below.

It is also worth noting that previous job reports have significantly overestimated the real numbers, as has happened repeatedly over the last few years.

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Massive revisions are coming to the US job market

If revisions materialize, we will see negative payrolls growth

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-massive-revisions-are-coming-to-the-us-job-market

⚠️US job gains were likely OVERSTATED by ~900,000 in 2024:

Massive job downward revisions will continue in the US

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-job-gains-were-likely-overstated-by-900-000-in-2024

FREE REPORT EXAMPLES INCLUDING THE JUNE’S ONE ARE LINKED BELOW

⚠️The US private sector employment is in a recession

US labor market trends are heading in the undesired direction

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-private-sector-employment-is-in-a-recession

🚨November job market report is worse than many think

Please find the job market breakdown of the world's largest economy

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/november-job-market-report-is-worse

Links to the previous months’ reports are also below.

⚠️US job market continues to deteriorate

The jobs report for September has not been released yet due to the government shutdown, but other data show a bleak picture of the labor market.

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-job-market-continues-to-deteriorate

⚠️August's US jobs report was the weakest in years

Will the stock market notice?

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/august-s-us-jobs-report-was-the-weakest-in-years

⚠️The US labor market suggests the economy is in a recession

Massive downward job revisions continue, and it is not over yet

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-labor-market-suggests-the-economy-is-in-a-recession

⚠️The US labor market headline numbers are useless

The job market is in a way worse shape than the non-farm payrolls readings show

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-labor-market-headline-numbers-are-useless

The US job headline numbers are overstated

The US labor market continues to deteriorate under the surface

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-job-headline-numbers-are-overstated

🚨US layoffs surpassed the Great Financial Crisis levels

March job report showed some resilience but other data points to a labor market deterioration

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-layoffs-surpassed-the-great-financial-crisis-levels

!!️The US job report for January was a complete mess

Despite the last two months' positive revisions, the US job market is likely to deteriorate further

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-job-report-for-january-was-a-complete-mess

The US economy shrank in Q1 2025, but is this really that bad?

Is the US economy in a recession?

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-economy-shrank-in-q1-2025-but-is-this-really-that-bad

🚨Expect more layoffs in the United States

US executives are getting more pessimistic about the outlook of the world's largest economy

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/expect-more-layoffs-in-the-united-states

⚠️US labor market lost jobs in Q2 2024

2025 revisions will likely show that Q2 2024 job growth was negative

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-labor-market-lost-jobs-in-q2-2024

US job numbers have been revised down by 818,000 for the 12 months through March 2024

Economic data revisions have been much higher than usual over the last 18 months

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-job-numbers-have-been-revised

PRIVATE DATA PROVIDERS SHOW A DISMAL PICTURE OF THE US LABOR MARKET

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