!!️The US job report for January was a complete mess

Despite the last two months' positive revisions, the US job market is likely to deteriorate further

Author

Global Markets Investor
February 12, 2025

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates the US economy created 143,000 jobs in January, according to a job report released Friday, February 7. This was below Wall Street’s expectations of 175,000. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.0%, below forecasts of 4.1%.

These things, however, are completely irrelevant as there were material revisions of the previous job numbers in the Establishment survey (non-farm payrolls) and massive population-related revisions to the Household survey (unemployment rate and labor force data).

Overall, there were many moving pieces including concerning signals coming from the leading indicators which are analyzed in the following sections.

I recommend going through the previous reports if you have not yet. November report analysis is available for free subscribers as well.

🚨BLS reports job market is in fantastic shape but consumers think the opposite

Data is skewed again by seasonal adjustments and low quality of jobs

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/bls-reports-job-market-is-in-a-fantastic

🚨November job market report is worse than many think

Please find the job market breakdown of the world's largest economy

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/november-job-market-report-is-worse

US job numbers have been revised down by 818,000 for the 12 months through March 2024

Economic data revisions have been much higher than usual over the last 18 months

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-job-numbers-have-been-revised

WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH REVISIONS?

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