⚠️US job gains were likely OVERSTATED by ~900,000 in 2024:

Massive job downward revisions will continue in the US

US private payrolls rose 0.6% year-over-year in 2024, according to the BLS's Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data covering 97% of employers.

This is half of the 1.2% reported by the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report.

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To put this differently, the NFP report showed private jobs gains of 2,095,000 while the QCEW data estimates 1,188,000 job additions for the 12 months ending December 2024.

This means jobs were overstated by ~75,500 a month last year.

As a result, we will see official downward revisions coming in the next few months.

The next article on the US job market will be released early next week.

The US job headline numbers are overstated

The US labor market continues to deteriorate under the surface

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-job-headline-numbers-are-overstated

⚠️The US economy actually LOST jobs in Q3 2024:

Q3 2024 job numbers will likely be revised down by ~400,000

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-economy-actually-lost-jobs-in-q3-2024

Financial distress is rising among US households

US consumer spending is near a tipping point

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/financial-distress-is-rising-among-us-households

INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO UPDATE (April 29, 2025)

Please find out an update about my market positioning - only for Founding Members

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/investment-portfolio-update-april-29-2025

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