The US job headline numbers are overstated

The US labor market continues to deteriorate under the surface

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates the US economy created 177,000 jobs in April, according to a report released Friday, May 2. This was way above Wall Street’s expectations of 128,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, in line with the estimates of 4.1%.

These are, as always, initial estimates, and the data suggests the numbers are again overstated.

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Behind the paywall, you will find out the full analysis of the US labor market, including forward-looking indicators, job openings, and layoffs data.

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🚨November job market report is worse than many think

Please find the job market breakdown of the world's largest economy

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/november-job-market-report-is-worse

🚨US layoffs surpassed the Great Financial Crisis levels

March job report showed some resilience but other data points to a labor market deterioration

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-layoffs-surpassed-the-great-financial-crisis-levels

!!️The US job report for January was a complete mess

Despite the last two months' positive revisions, the US job market is likely to deteriorate further

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-job-report-for-january-was-a-complete-mess

The US economy shrank in Q1 2025, but is this really that bad?

Is the US economy in a recession?

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-economy-shrank-in-q1-2025-but-is-this-really-that-bad

🚨Expect more layoffs in the United States

US executives are getting more pessimistic about the outlook of the world's largest economy

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/expect-more-layoffs-in-the-united-states

⚠️US labor market lost jobs in Q2 2024

2025 revisions will likely show that Q2 2024 job growth was negative

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-labor-market-lost-jobs-in-q2-2024

US job numbers have been revised down by 818,000 for the 12 months through March 2024

Economic data revisions have been much higher than usual over the last 18 months

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-job-numbers-have-been-revised

2025 JOB NUMBERS ARE OVERSTATED AGAIN

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