⚠️2025 was the weakest job market in 22 years outside of recessions

Don’t be fooled by the headline numbers, the real story is much weaker.

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Global Markets Investor
February 12, 2026

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GLOBAL MARKETS INVESTOR’S PORTFOLIO IS 🔥UP +93%🔥 SINCE JANUARY 2024

DURING THE MARCH-APRIL 2025 MARKET TURMOIL, MAJOR US INDEXES FELL NEARLY 20%, WHILE THE GMI PORTFOLIO GAINED OVER 5%, FIND OUT HOW BELOW:

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates the US economy created +130,000 jobs in January, according to a report released Wednesday, February 11. This beat average expectations of +55,000 increase.

The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%, from, 4.4% and below expectations of 4.4%. Notably, the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate, jumped from 4.1% in December to 4.6% in January.

Interestingly, the government shed -42,000 jobs last month, posting its 6th decline over the last 7 months.

The initial data seems upbeat, yet a deeper look reveals what is actually happening. And the picture beneath the surface is far weaker than the headline claims.

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Importantly, we also need to remember, that previous jobs reports have significantly overestimated the real numbers. This has happened repeatedly over the last few years and is likely the case again.

After the paywall, you will find the thorough analysis of the most recent jobs report.

🚨The US labor market just saw the biggest downward revision on record

The US job market is falling apart

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-labor-market-just-saw-the-biggest-downward-revision-on-record

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Massive revisions are coming to the US job market

If revisions materialize, we will see negative payrolls growth

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-massive-revisions-are-coming-to-the-us-job-market

⚠️US job gains were likely OVERSTATED by ~900,000 in 2024:

Massive job downward revisions will continue in the US

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-job-gains-were-likely-overstated-by-900-000-in-2024

FREE REPORT EXAMPLES INCLUDING THE JUNE’S REPORT ARE LINKED BELOW

⚠️The US private sector employment is in a recession

US labor market trends are heading in the undesired direction

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-private-sector-employment-is-in-a-recession

🚨November job market report is worse than many think

Please find the job market breakdown of the world's largest economy

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/november-job-market-report-is-worse

Links to the previous analysis is below.

⚠️US layoffs are off to their largest start to a year since the Great Financial Crisis

What alternative data says about the US job market?

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-layoffs-are-off-to-their-largest-start-to-a-year-since-the-great-financial-crisis

⚠️The US labor market slowdown is intensifying

Ignore the headlines, the underlying data tells a very different story

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-labor-market-slowdown-is-intensifying

⚠️The US job market is in decline

When accounting for future revisions, the labor market is falling at a recessionary pace.

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-job-market-is-in-decline

⚠️The US labor market is experiencing a hidden recession

What alternative data and forward-looking indicators say about US employment

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-labor-market-is-experiencing-a-hidden-recession

🚨What are the official US job openings, NFIB small business, and hiring data saying?

Time to update the analysis of the US labor market with additional data released on Tuesday, December 9.

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/what-are-the-official-us-job-openings-nfib-small-business-and-hiring-data-saying

ADJUSTED FOR THE BROKEN BIRTH-DEATH MODEL, THE JANUARY PRINT IS FAR WEAKER

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