⚠️The US labor market is experiencing a hidden recession

What alternative data and forward-looking indicators say about US employment

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Global Markets Investor
December 05, 2025

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🔥🔥 GLOBAL MARKETS INVESTOR PORTFOLIO — UP 64% SINCE JANUARY 2024 DURING THE MARCH-APRIL 2025 MARKET TURMOIL, MAJOR US INDEXES FELL NEARLY 20%, WHILE THE GMI PORTFOLIO GAINED OVER 5%, FIND OUT HOW BELOW:

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As we already know, the BLS will not publish an October employment report. Instead, those payroll figures will be folded into the November report, which is scheduled for release on December 16, one week after the Fed’s final meeting of the year on December 9 and 10.

According to records dating back to 1994, this is the first time the agency has failed to release a monthly employment report.

The BLS was unable to collect October household survey data, which determine key indicators such as the unemployment rate, because of the record-long government shutdown. The agency also stated that these data cannot be gathered retroactively, meaning they will not be published at all.

The BLS will also skip the September JOLTS job-openings report and publish both the September and October data together on December 9.

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Therefore, in the absence of official data, high-quality private-sector employment indicators become essential for assessing the state of the US job market, and these are examined below.

It is also worth noting that previous job reports have repeatedly overstated the true numbers in recent years, which further underscores the importance of monitoring alternative data.

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Massive revisions are coming to the US job market

If revisions materialize, we will see negative payrolls growth

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-massive-revisions-are-coming-to-the-us-job-market

⚠️US job gains were likely OVERSTATED by ~900,000 in 2024:

Massive job downward revisions will continue in the US

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-job-gains-were-likely-overstated-by-900-000-in-2024

FREE REPORT EXAMPLES INCLUDING THE JUNE’S REPORT ARE LINKED BELOW

⚠️The US private sector employment is in a recession

US labor market trends are heading in the undesired direction

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-private-sector-employment-is-in-a-recession

🚨November job market report is worse than many think

Please find the job market breakdown of the world's largest economy

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/november-job-market-report-is-worse

Links to the previous analyses are also attached below.

⚠️The US job market is not picking up as the headlines suggest.

The labor market of the world’s largest economy continues to deteriorate beneath the surface.

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-job-market-is-not-picking-up-as-the-headlines-suggest

⚠️The US labor market is in a recession

The job reports for September and October have not been released due to the government shutdown, but private data show a grim picture of the labor market.

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-labor-market-is-in-a-recession

US PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT CONTINUES TO SHRINK

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