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- ⚠️The US job market is in decline
⚠️The US job market is in decline
When accounting for future revisions, the labor market is falling at a recessionary pace.
Global Markets Investor
December 17, 2025
In partnership with
🔥🔥 GLOBAL MARKETS INVESTOR PORTFOLIO — UP 64% SINCE JANUARY 2024 DURING THE MARCH-APRIL 2025 MARKET TURMOIL, MAJOR US INDEXES FELL NEARLY 20%, WHILE THE GMI PORTFOLIO GAINED OVER 5%, FIND OUT HOW BELOW:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates the US economy created 64,000 jobs in November and lost -105,000 jobs in October, according to a report released December 16.
The October payroll decline, the largest since late 2020, was driven by a -162,000 drop in federal government employment as workers who accepted the administrations’ deferred resignation offers rolled off payrolls.
This also brings, the 3-month average of job addition to +22,000, one of the weakest readings since 2020.
The unemployment rate rose +0.2 percentage points to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 and below expectations of 4.5%. On an unrounded basis, the unemployment rate rose 12 basis points, to 4.564% in November, from 4.440% in September.
The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes persons marginally attached to the labor force and part-time workers for economic reasons, rose +0.7 since September, to 8.7%, the highest since August 2021. This captures people who want a job and have stopped looking, plus those forced to work part-time because full-time work is unavailable.
As you can see, these levels were last seen in the middle of the 2001 recession.
Meanwhile, unemployment rates for Whites, at 3.9%, Blacks, at 8.3%, and Asians, at 3.6%, all increased, while the unemployment rate for Hispanics fell to 5.0%.
The first look at this data does not look encouraging. Let’s dig further to see what is happening beneath the surface.
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Lastly, it is worth noting, as always, that previous jobs reports have significantly overestimated the real numbers. This has happened repeatedly over the last few years and is likely the case again.
After the paywall, you will find the full analysis of the most recent jobs report, including what may be happening next.
FREE REPORT EXAMPLES INCLUDING THE JUNE’S REPORT ARE LINKED BELOW
Links to the previous analysis is below.
FULL BREAKDOWN OF THE REPORT INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT REVISIONS
