⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Is the economy experiencing a jobless boom?

Or will GDP be significantly revised down?

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Global Markets Investor
February 21, 2026

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GLOBAL MARKETS INVESTOR’S PORTFOLIO IS 🔥UP +93%🔥SINCE JANUARY 2024

DURING THE MARCH-APRIL 2025 MARKET TURMOIL, MAJOR US INDEXES FELL NEARLY 20%, WHILE THE GMI PORTFOLIO GAINED OVER 5%, FIND OUT HOW BELOW:

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What is happening with the US economy?

US non-farm payrolls increased just +0.1% YoY in 2025, the weakest job market expansion in 22 years, excluding recessions.

At the same time, US GDP expanded +2.2% in 2025, creating a massive divergence between these two data sets.

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This comes as Friday release showed, US Q4 2025 GDP growth slowed to just +1.4%, from 4.4%, well below the +3.0% expected.

Consumer spending contributed +1.6 percentage points, while investment added +0.7 points.

However, government spending collapsed at a -5.1% pace, the steepest decline since 2020, driven by the prolonged government shutdown.

As already mentioned at the beginning, for the Full Year 2025, the US economy grew +2.2%, down from +2.8% in 2024 and the slowest expansion since the -2.1% contraction in 2020.

At the same time, inflation came in hotter than expected.

The PCE Price Index rose to 2.9%, above the 2.8% forecast, while Core PCE jumped to 3.0%, the highest since November 2023.

On a monthly basis, both headline and Core PCE rose +0.4% MoM in December, above the +0.3% expected.

We need to keep in mind, that GDP data tends to be revised multiple times, with final numbers often coming years later.

Is this a jobless expansion, or will GDP be significantly revised down?

More about the US job market in the following analysis.

⚠️2025 was the weakest job market in 22 years outside of recessions

Don’t be fooled by the headline numbers, the real story is much weaker.

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/2025-was-the-weakest-job-market-in-22-years-outside-of-recessions

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