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S&P 500 tumbled following hitting a new record. Weekly market recap, trading week 08/2025

Summary of the trading week using the most popular posts from the X platform

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Global Markets Investor
February 23, 2025

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In this series, you can find financial markets posts with the highest number of interactions from my X platform feed over the most recent week. I am aware that not everybody uses X regularly so I thought it could provide some value to your analysis, and investment process. These posts are also surrounded by commentary and explanations of complicated topics.

It was supposed to be a slow week but it turned out to be a wild one. US equity markets declined after two weeks of gains with the sharpest sell-off occurring on Friday. There were a lot of drivers behind, therefore, let’s list them for more clarity:

  • disappointing US economic data (services PMI, consumer sentiment, housing data) - more in the following sections

  • rising inflation expectations of US consumers (although skewed politically)

  • gigantic options expiration

  • reports coming from China that a new coronavirus 'with pandemic potential' was discovered

  • Walmart lower than expected earnings and guidance

  • Trump’s comments around tariffs

  • uncertainty over Sunday’s German election

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: US private sector hiring is at recession levels

The job market does not seem to be as strong as headlines claim

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-us-private-sector-hiring-is-at-recession-levels

⚠️Americans are missing debt payments as if there is a recession:

US consumer credit card serious delinquencies are skyrocketing

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/americans-are-missing-debt-payments-as-if-there-is-a-recession

⚠️US credit card debt hit another record

US credit card debt jumped by $45 billion in Q4 2024

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-credit-card-debt-hit-another-record

⚠️White-collar recession in the US continues

The US professional and business services job sector has been shrinking for 1.5 years

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/white-collar-recession-in-the-us-continues

🚨German bankruptcies are skyrocketing

The number of bankruptcies in the world's third-largest economy hit a 10-year high

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/new-post

1) Weekly performance. In the first screenshot attached, you can see last week’s performance of the major US indexes, the VIX volatility index, gold, and Bitcoin.

- S&P 500 fell 1.7%
- Nasdaq index plummeted 2.5%
- Dow Jones dropped 2.5%
- Russell 2000 (small caps) fell 3.5%
- VIX spiked 24%
- WTI Crude Oil fell 0.6%
- Silver increased 0.3%
- Gold jumped 1.7%

!?️Is this a time to be cautious about gold?

Short-term and long-term perspectives for the world's most desired metal.

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-this-a-time-to-be-cautious-about-gold

- Bitcoin fell 2.5%

Is Bitcoin going to $1,000,000?

What to expect from the world's largest cryptocurrency in the coming months and years

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-bitcoin-going-to-1000000

For the trading week ending February 28, key events are:

- US Consumer Confidence on Tuesday

- US New Home Sales for January on Wednesday

- NVIDIA Q3 2025 earnings report on Wednesday

- US Q4 2024 GDP (second estimate) on Thursday

- US PCE Inflation for January on Friday

- At least 10 Fed speakers.

All eyes will be on NVIDIA and US inflation data.

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Retail investors are buying NVIDIA stock like never before

Mom-and-pop investors bought a huge amount of NVIDIA stock this week despite the drop

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-retail-investors

The Core PCE inflation rate (excluding food and energy) likely rose 2.6% year-over-year, according to estimates. That would be the lowest since March 2021 and an encouraging sign for the Fed. Why PCE inflation rate is falling while the CPI and PPI rose? Find out more in the previous market recap:

S&P 500 recovered the last two weeks' losses. Weekly market recap, trading week 07/2025

Summary of the trading week using the most popular posts from the X platform

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/s-p-500-fell-for-the-2nd-straight-week-amid-tariff-uncertainty-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-06-2

2) The US services sector contracting. Will this bring the entire economy into a recession?

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