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  • The S&P 500 hit an all-time high for the first time since February. Weekly market recap, trading week 26/2025

The S&P 500 hit an all-time high for the first time since February. Weekly market recap, trading week 26/2025

Summary of the trading week using the most popular posts from the X platform

In this series, you can find financial markets posts with the highest number of interactions from my X platform feed over the most recent week. I am aware that not everybody uses X regularly, so I thought it could provide some value to your analysis, and investment process. These posts are surrounded by extra charts, commentary and explanations of complicated topics.

US stocks rallied this week as geopolitical tensions eased in the Middle East. The rally was also fueled by hopes of another trade deals. As a result, the S&P 500 closed at its first all-time high since February. Furthermore, US Treasury yields dropped for the 2nd straight week while Gold underperformed.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said China confirmed details of a trade framework with the US.

“In recent days, after approval, both sides have further confirmed details on the framework,”

“The Chinese side will review and approve eligible applications for export of controlled items in accordance with the law. The US side will correspondingly cancel a series of restrictive measures taken against China.”

Interestingly, rare earths are still not flowing from China to the US which was confirmed by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Friday.

“They’re going to deliver rare earths to us” and once they do that, “we’ll take down our countermeasures,” Lutnick told Bloomberg News in an interview.

As a reminder, on July 9, the 90-day tariff pause set by President Trump on many countries will be concluded.

In case you missed it, this week’s posts are listed below.

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: China is diversifying its currency reserves out of the US Dollar

The trend accelerated in 2022

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-china-is-diversifying-its-currency-reserves-out-of-the-us-dollar

The Fed is still clueless about the future path of rates and economy

There is no consensus among the Fed members regarding the future rates path

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-fed-is-still-clueless-about-the-future-path-of-rates-and-economy

⚠️Leading indicators are again signalling a recession in the US

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is down ~16% from its peak.

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-china-s-official-holdings-of-us-treasuries-dropped-to-the-lowest-in-16-years-1

🚨US Q1 2025 GDP was revised lower

Consumer spending last quarter was the weakest since the 2020 Crisis

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-q1-2025-gdp-was-revised-lower

⚠️The US economy has never been more dependent on the wealthiest Americans

The top 10% accounts now for roughly half of all consumer spending in America

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-economy-has-never-been-more-dependent-on-the-wealthiest-americans

⚠️China’s rare earth magnet exports collapsed

China's rare earth exports are critical

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-s-rare-earth-magnet-exports-collapsed

1) Weekly performance. In the first post attached, you can see last week’s performance of the major US indexes, the VIX volatility index, 10-year Treasury yield, the US Dollar, gold, silver, WTI Crude oil and Bitcoin.

- S&P 500 jumped 3.3%
- Nasdaq index rose 3.1%
- Dow Jones increased 3.7%
- Russell 2000 (small caps) soared 3.0%
- US 10-year Treasury yield declined 9 bps
- VIX fell 21%
- US Dollar index declined 1.4%
- WTI Crude Oil fell 12.8%
- Silver decreased 0.4%
- Gold dropped 3.0%

🔥This is the year of precious metals

Gold, silver and platinum are crushing US stocks and other assets this year

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/this-is-the-year-of-precious-metalsthe-us-labor-market-headline-numbers-are-useless-1

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Will the gold outperformance of the S&P 500 continue for years?

Food for thought regarding gold and the S&P 500 relative performance

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-will-the-gold-outperformance-of-the-s-p-500-continue-for-years

- Bitcoin jumped 4.5%

Is Bitcoin going to $1,000,000?

What to expect from the world's largest cryptocurrency in the coming months and years

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-bitcoin-going-to-1000000

For the trading week ending July 3, key events are:

- US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June on Tuesday

- US Job Openings for May on Tuesday

- Fed Chair Powell Speeches on Tuesday

- US ADP Employment for June on Wednesday

- US Challenger Job Cuts for June on Wednesday

- US ISM Services PMI for June on Thursday

- US Non-Farm Payrolls for June on Thursday

- US Markets closed on Friday - Independence Day

- At least 4 Fed Speeches

Big week in terms of the US labor market. It will also be interesting to see whether the services sector weakness persisted in June.

2) Further evidence of weakening US consumer spending a key driver of the world’s largest economy.

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