⚠️Leading indicators are again signalling a recession in the US

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is down ~16% from its peak.

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased - 0.1% month-over-month in May, marking its 6th consecutive monthly decline. The index has fallen in 37 out of the last 39 months, one of the worst streaks ever.

Additionally, the gauge has fallen ~5% annualized over the last 6 months, triggering a recession signal.

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It is now down ~16% from its peak and hit a 9-year low. In the past, such drops have preceded every US recession since 1960.

We have to keep in mind, however, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) is somewhat skewed toward the manufacturing sector.

Out of the 10 components of the LEI, 4 are directly related to manufacturing, including:

ISM® new orders index

Average weekly hours in manufacturing

New orders for consumer goods and materials

New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.

On the other hand, the services sector is underrepresented in the index. Despite services making up ~70% GDP, key service-related indicators, such as the ISM Services PMI, are not included in the LEI.

Therefore, the LEI may overstate economic weakness when manufacturing is contracting but services remain resilient.

The Fed is still clueless about the future path of rates and economy

There is no consensus among the Fed members regarding the future rates path

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-fed-is-still-clueless-about-the-future-path-of-rates-and-economy

The S&P 500 declined for the 2nd straight week. Weekly market recap, trading week 25/2025

Summary of the trading week using the most popular posts from the X platform

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-s-p-500-declined-for-the-2nd-straight-week-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-25-2025

INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO UPDATE (April 29, 2025)

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globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/investment-portfolio-update-april-29-2025

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