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  • The S&P 500 fell last week amid tariff uncertainty. Weekly market recap, trading week 28/2025

The S&P 500 fell last week amid tariff uncertainty. Weekly market recap, trading week 28/2025

Summary of the trading week using the most popular posts from the X platform

In this series, you can find financial markets posts with the highest number of interactions from my X platform feed over the most recent week. I am aware that not everybody uses X regularly, so I thought it could provide some value to your analysis, and investment process. These posts are surrounded by extra charts, commentary and explanations of complicated topics.

US stocks fell slightly this week as global tariff policy uncertainty started to spike once again following President Trump's announcements of new levies, including 50% on copper imports.

Nevertheless, the S&P 500 has hit 8 all-time highs so far in 2025.

If you are lost with the most recent tariff announcements, here is a useful map showing tariffs as of July 12 with an extended August 1 deadline, including 30% on Mexico and the EU, as well as 35% on Canada.

As a reminder, EU, Canada and Mexico are the biggest buyers of goods and services from the US.

President Trump also said he is thinking of blanket tariffs of 15% to 20% on most trading partners, who have not been informed yet of their rates.

The market will likely not respond heavily to this news as investors perceive tariffs as Trump’s negotiating tool, and there is still some time until August 1. However, at some point the patience can end.

In case you missed it, other posts from this week are listed below.

⚠️The US private sector employment is in a recession

US labor market trends are heading in the undesired direction

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-private-sector-employment-is-in-a-recession

🚨US corporate bankruptcies are running at recession levels

US large bankruptcies hit the highest level in 15 years so far in 2025

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-corporate-bankruptcies-are-running-at-recession-levels

⚠️Americans' wages are stagnating

The share of working Americans not getting pay raises is increasing

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/americans-wages-are-stagnating

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: The US Dollar index is the most oversold in two decades

Is the short US Dollar trade overcrowded?

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-the-us-dollar-index-is-the-most-oversold-in-two-decades

🚨Japan and the US long-term government bond yields are rising again

Investors should continuously watch the US and the Japanese bond markets

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/japan-and-the-us-long-term-government-bond-yields-are-rising-again

🚨Hedge funds are betting on a market pullback

Hedge funds' long/short ratio fell to the lowest level in over 18 months

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/hedge-funds-are-betting-on-a-market-pullback

1) Weekly performance. In the first post attached, you can see last week’s performance of the major US indexes, the VIX volatility index, 10-year Treasury yield, the US Dollar, gold, silver, WTI Crude oil and Bitcoin.

- S&P 500 fell 0.3%
- Nasdaq index decreased 0.1%
- Dow Jones declined 1.0%
- Russell 2000 (small caps) fell 0.6%
- US 10-year Treasury yield increased 6 bps
- VIX dropped 6%
- US Dollar index rose 0.7%
- WTI Crude Oil jumped 2.6%
- Silver soared 5.4%
- Gold increased 0.8%

🔥This is the year of precious metals

Gold, silver and platinum are crushing US stocks and other assets this year

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/this-is-the-year-of-precious-metalsthe-us-labor-market-headline-numbers-are-useless-1

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Will the gold outperformance of the S&P 500 continue for years?

Food for thought regarding gold and the S&P 500 relative performance

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-will-the-gold-outperformance-of-the-s-p-500-continue-for-years

- Bitcoin surged 8.8%

Is Bitcoin going to $1,000,000?

What to expect from the world's largest cryptocurrency in the coming months and years

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-bitcoin-going-to-1000000

For the trading week ending July 18, key events are:

- US Inflation CPI for June on Tuesday

- US Inflation PPI for June on Wednesday

- US Industrial Production for June on Wednesday

- US Retail Sales for June on Thursday

- US Consumer Sentiment for July on Friday

- US Housing Starts and Building Permits for June on Friday

- At least 12 Fed Speeches

Pretty muted week in terms of the economic data.

2) Mixed signals from retail and institutional investors market purchases and sales.

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