S&P 500 is underperforming this year. Weekly market recap, trading week 22/2025

Summary of the trading week using the most popular posts from the X platform

In this series, you can find financial markets posts with the highest number of interactions from my X platform feed over the most recent week. I am aware that not everybody uses X regularly, so I thought it could provide some value to your analysis, and investment process. These posts are surrounded by extra charts, commentary and explanations of complicated topics.

The S&P 500 rallied 6.1% this month, recording the best May since 1990 as the post-tariffs recovery continued. However, year-to-date, the S&P 500 has underperformed World stocks excluding the US by 12 percentage points, the most in 32 years.

Meanwhile, China-US tensions have intensified.

According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, China-US trade talks stalled.

On Friday, President Donald Trump accused China of “totally violating” an agreement signed in Switzerland two weeks ago, the so-called “trade deal” which is not a trade deal at all. Moreover, WSJ reported that the same trade truce is at risk of falling apart.

After the markets closed on Friday, President Trump announced additional tariffs on steel, from 25% to 50%, beginning June 4. The EU responded that it is already preparing countermeasures.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, US defence secretary Pete Hegseth warned that Chinese military action against Taiwan 'could be imminent’.

On Sunday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the US is the biggest factor undermining peace and stability in the South China Sea

Lastly, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “What China is doing is they are holding back products that are essential for the industrial supply chains of India, of Europe. And that is not what a reliable partner does.”

This all does not look like well-going trade talks.

⚠️Portfolio performance review as of May 2025

Assessment of my long-term investment portfolio as of May 2025

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/portfolio-performance-review-as-of-may-2025

!?️What is happening with the global government bond market?

Bond investors are in control of the financial markets - this is key to watch

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/what-is-happening-with-the-global-government-bond-market

🚨Japanese life insurance companies are posting record unrealized losses

Is the global bond market blowing up?

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/japanese-life-insurance-companies-are-posting-record-unrealized-losses

⚠️Asian nations have never owned so many US assets.

Will they bring the money back home?

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/asian-nations-have-never-owned-so-many-us-assets

US consumers are increasingly unable to cover emergency expenses

Inflation and prices are the main Americans' financial challenges

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-consumers-are-increasingly-unable-to-cover-emergency-expenses

🚨US CEOs' confidence is falling at a record pace

Are more layoffs coming in the US?

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-ceos-confidence-is-falling-at-a-record-pace

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: US median mortgage payment hit an all-time high

It has never been more expensive to buy a house in the US

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-us-median-mortgage-payment-hit-an-all-time-high

1) Weekly performance. In the first post attached, you can see last week’s performance of the major US indexes, the VIX volatility index, 10-year Treasury yield, the US Dollar, gold, silver, oil and Bitcoin.

- S&P 500 rose 2.0%
- Nasdaq index jumped 2.2%
- Dow Jones increased 1.7%
- Russell 2000 (small caps) advanced 1.6%
- US 10-year Treasury yield fell 11 bps
- VIX dropped 16%
- US Dollar index increased 0.2%
- WTI Crude Oil decreased 1.0%
- Silver declined 1.6%
- Gold fell 2.2%

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Will the gold outperformance of the S&P 500 continue for years?

Food for thought regarding gold and the S&P 500 relative performance

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-will-the-gold-outperformance-of-the-s-p-500-continue-for-years

!?️Is this a time to be cautious about gold?

Short-term and long-term perspectives for the world's most desired metal.

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-this-a-time-to-be-cautious-about-gold

- Bitcoin fell 2.8%

Is Bitcoin going to $1,000,000?

What to expect from the world's largest cryptocurrency in the coming months and years

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-bitcoin-going-to-1000000

For the trading week ending June 6, key events are:

- US ISM Manufacturing PMI for May on Monday

- Fed Chair Powell Speech on Monday

- US Job Openings for April on Tuesday

- US ISM Services PMI for May on Wednesday

- US Challenger Job Cuts for May on Thursday

- US Nonfarm Payrolls for May on Friday

- At least 6 Fed speakers

The US job market will be a key focus next week.

2) This is a bad signal for US technology stocks.

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