What has been the average US bear market drawdown in the past?

Historically, the S&P 500 has fallen by ~35% on average during a bear market

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Global Markets Investor
April 17, 2025

The S&P 500 $SPX ( ▲ 0.13% ) has declined ~35% during a bear market on average since the 1800s, according to Goldman Sachs analysis.

In case of the event-driven bear markets triggered by a one-off shock, such as in 2020, US stocks have decreased ~27% on average.

Cyclical bear markets caused by rising interest rates, recession and falling companies’ profits have seen ~30% average declines.

Structural bear markets, like during the 2008 Financial Crisis or in the 1970s, have seen nearly 60% average drawdowns.

If the US tries to reshape the financial system and money continues to flow out of the US, there might still be years of pain ahead. Read more about this thesis in the below piece:

🚨Is the United States going to default on its public debt?

What is a Mar-a-Lago Accord and how it could reshape the global financial system?

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-the-united-states-going-to-default-on-its-public-debt

⚠️Be mindful of bear market rallies

Bear markets make fools of both bulls and bears

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/be-mindful-of-bear-market-rallies

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