US stocks declined amid Israel-Iran attacks. Weekly market recap, trading week 24/2025

Summary of the trading week using the most popular posts from the X platform

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In this series, you can find financial markets posts with the highest number of interactions from my X platform feed over the most recent week. I am aware that not everybody uses X regularly, so I thought it could provide some value to your analysis, and investment process. These posts are surrounded by extra charts, commentary and explanations of complicated topics.

US stocks fell while gold and oil prices jumped last week driven by Israel-Iran attacks as well as President Donald Trump plans to send letters to trading partners in the next 1-2 weeks setting unilateral tariff rates ahead of a July 9 pause deadline.

Moreover, after the US-China trade talks in London, the US will raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 55% (up from 30%), while China will impose a 10% tariff on US imports. Additionally, China will be supplying necessary rare earth materials like before, while the US will roll back a crackdown on visas for Chinese students. This is subject to further approval by President Trump and President Xi.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister has stated that Tehran will stop attacking Israel, but only if Israel ends its strikes on Iran first.

In case you missed it, this week’s posts are listed below.

⚠️The US labor market headline numbers are useless

The job market is in a way worse shape than the non-farm payrolls readings show

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-labor-market-headline-numbers-are-useless

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Global stock market cap to GDP is growing

Valuations are pushing into rare territory

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-global-stock-market-cap-to-gdp-is-growing

🚨Institutional investors continue to dump US stocks

On the other hand, retail investors keep up with buying

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/institutional-investors-continue-to-dump-us-stocks

⚠️The US budget deficit remains historically elevated

The US government is running the third-highest budget deficit ever

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-budget-deficit-remains-historically-elevated

⚠️The US job market is set to deteriorate

One leading indicator suggests further weakness in the US labor market

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-job-market-is-set-to-deteriorate

⚠️China dominates global rare earths supply

The world's dependence on China for rare earths is a major strategic vulnerability:

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-dominates-global-rare-earths-supply

1) Weekly performance. In the first post attached, you can see last week’s performance of the major US indexes, the VIX volatility index, 10-year Treasury yield, the US Dollar, gold, silver, WTI Crude oil and Bitcoin.

- S&P 500 fell 0.4%
- Nasdaq index declined 0.6%
- Dow Jones dropped 1.3%
- Russell 2000 (small caps) fell 1.5%
- US 10-year Treasury yield declined 10 bps
- VIX spiked 15.5%
- US Dollar index fell 1.0%
- WTI Crude Oil jumped 13%
- Silver increased 0.7%
- Gold rose 3.2%

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Will the gold outperformance of the S&P 500 continue for years?

Food for thought regarding gold and the S&P 500 relative performance

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-will-the-gold-outperformance-of-the-s-p-500-continue-for-years

!?️Is this a time to be cautious about gold?

Short-term and long-term perspectives for the world's most desired metal.

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-this-a-time-to-be-cautious-about-gold

- Bitcoin rose 0.2%

Is Bitcoin going to $1,000,000?

What to expect from the world's largest cryptocurrency in the coming months and years

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-bitcoin-going-to-1000000

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For the trading week ending June 20, key events are:

- US Retail Sales for May on Tuesday

- US Industrial Production for May on Tuesday

- US Housing Starts and Building Permits for May on Wednesday

- Fed Interest Rate Decision and the Chair Powell Conference on Wednesday

It will be interesting to see how the Fed's economic projections would change.

2) Some complacency has reached the US stock market. Pain ahead?

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