⚠️US retail sales remain weak

Retail sales adjusted for inflation have decreased ~3% over the last 4 years.

Author

Global Markets Investor
March 17, 2025

US retail sales rose 0.2% month-over-month in February, below the expected 0.6% increase. January was revised down to -1.2%, the biggest decline since July 2021. On the bright side, control group sales (used for GDP calculation) saw a 1.0% jump, above estimates of a 0.3% advance. On net, however, control group sales are still down this quarter after a 1% drop in January.

Concerningly, restaurant retail sales fell 1.5% month-over-month in February, the largest plunge in 2 years.

As a result, restaurant sales have tumbled by an 8.5% annual rate over the last 3 months, the most since Q1 2022 when GDP contracted by 1.0%.

Additionally, when we adjust total retail sales for inflation we can see that consumer spending is down 3% over the last 4 years.

In other words, Americans cannot keep up with rising prices of necessities. Moreover, the spending momentum in nominal terms has also significantly weakened this year.

More analysis about the shape of the US consumer can be found below:

S&P 500 declined for the 4th straight week. Weekly market recap, trading week 11/2025

Summary of the trading week using the most popular posts from the X platform

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/s-p-500-declined-for-the-3rd-straight-week-matching-the-july-2024-streak-weekly-market-recap-trading-626c

🚨What is happening with the US consumer sentiment?

Americans' economic outlook is rapidly shifting, and this is not a good sign

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/what-is-happening-with-the-us-consumer-sentiment

🚨US layoffs are surging at a recessionary pace

February job report showed a lot of labor market weakness

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-layoffs-are-surging-at-a-recessionary-pace

⚠️Portfolio performance review for February 2025

Assessment of my long-term investment portfolio as of February 2025

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/portfolio-performance-review-for-February-2025

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