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  • The S&P 500 hit its 14th all-time high this year. Weekly market recap, trading week 30/2025

The S&P 500 hit its 14th all-time high this year. Weekly market recap, trading week 30/2025

Summary of the trading week using the most popular posts from the X platform

In partnership with

In this series, you can find financial markets posts with the highest number of interactions from my X platform feed over the most recent week. I am aware that not everybody uses X regularly, so I thought it could provide some value to your analysis, and investment process. These posts are surrounded by extra charts, commentary and explanations of complicated topics.

The S&P 500 has hit its 14th all-time high this year, driven by earnings coming in higher than expectations, alleged US trade deal with Japan and hopes for more US trade deals.

~83% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded net income estimates (low expectations), according to Bloomberg. However, it should not be compared to previous quarter earnings, as only 25% of companies so far have reported. Earnings beats are usually lower in the later part of the season.

Meanwhile, FT reports cracks widen between Japan and the US after an alleged trade deal.

Japan and the US announced a trade deal involving $550B in potential Japanese investment, but Japan clarified profits will only be shared based on each side's risk and financial contribution—not a guaranteed 90/10 split favoring the US.

US officials claimed Japan agreed to finance major US projects in exchange for tariff cuts, but Japanese officials said there’s no formal or legally binding agreement on that.

“Japanese officials said there was no written agreement with Washington — and no legally binding one would be drawn up — after Trump administration officials claimed Tokyo would back investments in the US from which American taxpayers would reap nine-tenths of the profits.”

“Officials familiar with the US-Japan talks said the deal was pulled together in a slapdash manner during a 70-minute meeting between Japan’s chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and Trump on Tuesday.”

Is this how deals are getting done these days? If something was not written, it should not be considered “a deal”.

In case you missed it, other posts from this week are listed below.

🚨 US stock market euphoria reaches Dot-Com Bubble levels

Do market sentiment and investor behavior signal a warning?

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stock-market-euphoria-reaches-dot-com-bubble-levels

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Over 50% of the S&P 500 returns came from the top 10 stocks since 2021

The US stock market is extremely concentrated

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-over-50-of-the-s-p-500-returns-came-from-the-top-10-stocks-since-2021

⚠️US corporate executives are extremely bearish

Insiders are dumping their own stocks at a record pace

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-corporate-executives-are-extremely-bearish

⚠️The Nasdaq 100 has seen such a streak only during the Dot-Com Bubble

Market volatility has been muted in recent weeks

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-nasdaq-100-has-seen-such-a-streak-only-during-the-dot-com-bubble

The US youth unemployment crisis is driven almost entirely by young men

Male college grads and non-grads are now unemployed at the same rate

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-youth-unemployment-crisis-is-driven-almost-entirely-by-young-men

🚨"Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) transactions in the US are set to hit a record high in 2025

US consumers have never been more indebted:

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-consumers-have-never-been-more-indebted

1) Weekly performance. In the first post attached, you can see last week’s performance of the major US indexes, the VIX volatility index, 10-year Treasury yield, the US Dollar, gold, silver, WTI Crude oil and Bitcoin.

- S&P 500 rose 0.4%
- Nasdaq index increased 0.2%
- Dow Jones rose 0.5%
- Russell 2000 (small caps) increased 0.4%
- US 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 bps
- VIX fell 3%
- US Dollar index declined 0.8%
- WTI Crude Oil fell 1.4%
- Silver declined 0.4%
- Gold fell 0.6%

🔥This is the year of precious metals

Gold, silver and platinum are crushing US stocks and other assets this year

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/this-is-the-year-of-precious-metalsthe-us-labor-market-headline-numbers-are-useless-1

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Will the gold outperformance of the S&P 500 continue for years?

Food for thought regarding gold and the S&P 500 relative performance

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-will-the-gold-outperformance-of-the-s-p-500-continue-for-years

- Bitcoin decreased 0.9%

Is Bitcoin going to $1,000,000?

What to expect from the world's largest cryptocurrency in the coming months and years

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-bitcoin-going-to-1000000

Former PepsiCo Exec Invented A Plastic That Dissolves in Water

If anyone knows a thing about plastic’s impact on the planet, it’s Manuel Rendon. The former PepsiCo executive and environmental engineer is using his 20 years of expertise to solve one of the world’s biggest problems with Timeplast.

Up to 450 million metric tons of plastic are wasted each year. Microplastics seep into our bodies, and mountains of bottles pile up in the ocean. But Timeplast has patented a water-soluble, time-programmable plastic that vanishes without harming the environment.

Major players are already partnering with Timeplast for its patented technology—their sales grew 6,000% in the first month.

You have just a few days left to invest as Timeplast scales in its $1.3T plastic market, from packaging to 3D printing. Become a Timeplast shareholder by midnight, 7/31.

This is a paid advertisement for Timeplast’s Regulation CF Offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.timeplast.com.

For the trading week ending August 1, key events are:

- US Job Openings for June on Tuesday

- US CB Consumer Confidence for July on Tuesday

- US GDP for Q2 2025 on Wednesday

- US ADP Employment for July on Wednesday

- Fed Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday

- US Challenger Job Cuts for July on Thursday

- US Challenger Job Cuts for July on Thursday

- US Non-Farm Payrolls for July On Friday

- US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July on Friday

- US Consumer Sentiment for July on Friday

- ~37% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings

Huge week ahead regarding the US economic data. This is also a pretty big week in terms of central bank rate decisions globally.

The Fed and the Bank of Canada are both expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday at 4.50% and 2.75%, respectively.

The Bank of Japan is also anticipated to hold its rate unchanged at 0.5% on Thursday.

2) US money market fund assets are historically LOW:

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