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  • S&P 500 declined for the first time in 5 weeks. Weekly market recap, trading week 19/2025

S&P 500 declined for the first time in 5 weeks. Weekly market recap, trading week 19/2025

Summary of the trading week using the most popular posts from the X platform

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In this series, you can find financial markets posts with the highest number of interactions from my X platform feed over the most recent week. I am aware that not everybody uses X regularly, so I thought it could provide some value to your analysis, and investment process. These posts are also surrounded by commentary and explanations of complicated topics.

The S&P 500 snapped the streak of 4 consecutive weeks of gains amid the trade war fog and the 'uneventful' Fed meeting.

The US Dollar has finished up slightly for the 3rd straight week, with the 10-year Treasury yields increasing for the 2nd week.

While the market recovery has stalled gold continues to outperform. Meanwhile, Bitcoin prices have skyrocketed.

On Thursday, the US Administration announced a ‘Trade Deal’ with the UK, which is actually a no-deal at all. In fact, there is no real agreement, and this is just the framework for future negotiations.

On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott said the US and China made “substantial progress” during 2 days of negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. More details will be provided on Monday. At the same time, China has not commented on the negotiations yet.

Expect more empty talk in the weeks ahead. Instead of following this noise, it is better to focus on real data.

1) Weekly performance. In the first post attached, you can see last week’s performance of the major US indexes, the VIX volatility index, 10-year Treasury yield, the US Dollar, gold, silver, oil and Bitcoin.

- S&P 500 fell 0.4%
- Nasdaq index decreased 0.2%
- Dow Jones declined 0.2%
- Russell 2000 (small caps) increased 0.1%
- US 10-year Treasury yield increased 8 bps
- VIX fell 3%
- US Dollar index rose 0.4%
- WTI Crude Oil dropped 4.5%
- Silver jumped 2.0%
- Gold fell 2.7%

- Bitcoin rallied 7.3%

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For the trading week ending May 16, key events are:

- US CPI Inflation rate for April on Tuesday

- US PPI Inflation rate for April on Thursday

- US retail sales for April on Thursday

- Philly Fed Business Conditions for May on Thursday

- Fed Chair Powell Speech on Thursday

- US Industrial Production for April on Thursday

- US Consumer Sentiment for May on Friday

- Several Fed speakers

- ~3% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 2025 earnings

Investors’ focus will be on the US inflation data and the subsequent Fed Chair comments.

2) The S&P 500 is testing a KEY technical level:

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