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Fertilizer prices are through the roof
Expect global food prices to rise further
Global Markets Investor
April 29, 2026
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GLOBAL MARKETS INVESTOR’S PORTFOLIO IS 🔥UP +93%🔥SINCE JANUARY 2024
DURING THE MARCH-APRIL 2025 MARKET TURMOIL, MAJOR US INDEXES FELL NEARLY 20%, WHILE THE GMI PORTFOLIO GAINED OVER 5%, FIND OUT HOW BELOW:
Urea prices have surged +80% to +100% year-to-date across all major benchmarks.
Urea is a nitrogen-based fertilizer that must be applied every season and directly affects crop yields and quality.
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This comes as the Iran war has brought traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a standstill, cutting off ~33% of globally traded urea volumes typically exported from the Gulf.
Gulf urea production has fallen by -55% to -60% since the start of the Iran war, now down to ~160,000 tons per week, the lowest level this year.
The Middle East makes up ~45% of global urea trade, supplying major importers including India, Europe, and Brazil.
Adding to the bottleneck, only 11 fertilizer ships have transited the Strait since the war began, with 44 vessels still stuck inside the Gulf, nearly half loaded with urea.
Producers are also running out of storage space, with loaded ships unable to exit and empty vessels unable to enter, raising the risk that manufacturers are forced to shut down entirely.
India, the world's largest rice producer, recently booked record volumes of urea in a single import tender, paying nearly twice the price it did just 2 months ago.
Unlike 2022, when high grain prices helped farmers absorb surging input costs, wheat and soybean prices are now ~50% below their 2022 peaks, leaving growers with far less buffer.
Meanwhile, Western Australia already expects wheat planting area to fall -14% as farmers shift away from fertilizer-intensive crops.
As a result of all Iran war-related disruptions, Bloomberg's agricultural commodities index is now at its highest since late 2023, up +13% over the last three months.
US wheat futures alone spiked to ~$6.58 per bushel on Tuesday, the highest since June 2024.
Prices are up +30% year-to-date, pushed higher by severe drought across the US Plains and a surge in fertilizer expenses.
Shockingly, only 30% of the nation’s wheat crop is rated good or excellent by the USDA, while the share graded poor or very poor continues to climb.
Drought stress is also forcing wheat to mature too quickly, with 34% already heading compared with a 5-year average of 21%, raising the risk of a much smaller harvest.
On top of this, US farmers are expected to plant the smallest wheat acreage since 1919, as soaring costs for fertilizer, seed, and equipment make the crop harder to grow profitably.
Global food inflation pressures are set to intensify.
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