Traders are increasingly expecting the Fed to cut rates by 0.50% next month

Are investors getting overexcited?

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Global Markets Investor
August 14, 2025

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On Tuesday, traders added about $2 million to bets linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) that would profit if the Fed cuts by 50 basis points.

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This comes as a fairly tame US inflation report and weakening job market data increased rate cut expectations. BlackRockā€™s Rick Rieder and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have even said a 50-point cut could make sense.

Currently, the market is pricing over 90% change of a September rate cut.

Still, some economists warn itā€™s not a done deal as more inflation and jobs data are coming before the Fed meets on September 16-17.

šŸšØUS consumer financial stress reached critical level

US consumer, the major driver of the economy is pulling back on spending, as if there is a recession

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-consumer-financial-stress-reached-critical-level

āš ļøThe US labor market suggests the economy is in a recession

Massive downward job revisions continue, and it is not over yet

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-labor-market-suggests-the-economy-is-in-a-recession

The Fed is still waiting despite slowing economy

No rate cut, no clarity on what's next, the Fed is going to be too late as always

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-fed-is-still-waiting-despite-slowing-economy

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