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- The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is now in effect
The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is now in effect
Meanwhile, the odds of the blockade being lifted are falling, according to prediction markets
Global Markets Investor
April 13, 2026
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The US military began enforcing a blockade of all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday, while allowing non-Iran-bound traffic to transit the strait freely.
The restrictions extend beyond the strait itself into the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, according to a note issued by US forces and seen by Bloomberg.
Strait transits have collapsed to single digits per day, from ~135 in peacetime, and a full blockade could reduce that further.
Meanwhile, Iran's national security commission spokesperson Ebrahim Rezaei dismissed the blockade as a "bluff," warning that Iran still has "cards" it has not yet played, according to the Washington Times.
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Asian nations, which rely on more than 80% of the energy that usually transits the strait, are bearing the brunt of the disruption, with downstream industries from fertilizers to packaging also taking a hit.
Oil is up +5%, but the lack of a material equity downside suggests markets still view this as a negotiating lever rather than a genuine re-escalation.
Meanwhile, prediction markets are not expecting Trump's blockade to end anytime soon. The odds of the blockade being lifted this week have dropped to just 16%.
The ceasefire expires on April 22, and the window for diplomacy is shrinking fast.
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