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- The US consumer is running out of steam
The US consumer is running out of steam
US consumers are spending more but buying less.
Global Markets Investor
April 22, 2026
In partnership with
GLOBAL MARKETS INVESTOR’S PORTFOLIO IS 🔥UP +93%🔥SINCE JANUARY 2024
DURING THE MARCH-APRIL 2025 MARKET TURMOIL, MAJOR US INDEXES FELL NEARLY 20%, WHILE THE GMI PORTFOLIO GAINED OVER 5%, FIND OUT HOW BELOW:
In real terms, US consumer spending has made almost no progress in the last 5 years.
Headline retail sales jumped +1.7% MoM in March, above the +1.4% consensus estimate, and +4.5% YoY.
However, the headline strength was driven by a +15.5% MoM surge in gasoline spending due to higher prices, along with temporarily favorable weather and larger tax refunds.
After adjusting for inflation, real retail sales CONTRACTED in March, meaning consumers are paying more while purchasing the same or less.
Inflation-adjusted retail sales currently stand at roughly the same level as early 2021 despite 5 years of nominal growth.
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Meanwhile, Real Personal Consumption Expenditure is growing at just +0.8% on a 3-month annualized basis, the slowest rate since the 2020 Crisis.
The levels are now similar to the ones seen during the 2001 recession.
Personal consumption makes up ~68% of US GDP, meaning a sustained slowdown in real spending poses a direct threat to overall economic growth.
If the consumer slows down, so does the economy.
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