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- The silver market is heading for a 6th consecutive year of structural deficit
The silver market is heading for a 6th consecutive year of structural deficit
The silver market is tightening fast, and prices will notice this over time
Global Markets Investor
April 20, 2026
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GLOBAL MARKETS INVESTOR’S PORTFOLIO IS 🔥UP +93%🔥SINCE JANUARY 2024
DURING THE MARCH-APRIL 2025 MARKET TURMOIL, MAJOR US INDEXES FELL NEARLY 20%, WHILE THE GMI PORTFOLIO GAINED OVER 5%, FIND OUT HOW BELOW:
The global silver deficit is expected to widen +15% YoY in 2026, to 46.3 million troy ounces, marking the 6th straight year of the silver market imbalance.
Since 2021, global silver stocks have been depleted by a cumulative 762 million troy ounces, raising the risk of another liquidity crisis in physical silver markets.
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The deficit is expected to be driven by a combination of weaker supply and shifting demand dynamics.
Industrial silver fabrication is projected to fall -3% YoY to a 4-year low, with the Iran war weighing on global growth and threatening further demand losses.
Coin and bar demand is expected to rise +18% YoY, supported by a recovery in US purchases, partially offsetting the industrial weakness.
At the same time, total global silver supply is projected to decline -2% YoY, as miners scale back production following last year's price surge.
Meanwhile, China's silver imports surged to a record ~836 tons in March, nearly 3 times the 10-year seasonal average of ~306 tons, according to Chinese customs data.
Demand was driven by retail investors purchasing small silver bars as a lower-cost alternative to gold, and by solar manufacturers front-loading production ahead of the removal of export tax rebates on April 1.
Importantly, the global solar industry consumes ~20% of total annual silver supply, with the majority of activity concentrated in China.
Strong Chinese demand also pushed domestic silver prices well above global prices, prompting traders to import silver from around the world to profit from the gap.
However, analysts expect the import surge to be short-lived, as China's government has pledged to reduce overcapacity in the solar sector, which could weigh on industrial silver demand going forward.
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