The global central bank dilemma

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Central banks are navigating the most complex policy environment since the 2022 energy crisis, caught between surging oil prices, rising inflation expectations, and slowing economic growth driven by the Iran War.

The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in March, with the median projection pointing to just 1 cut in 2026, while a leadership transition to incoming Chair Kevin Warsh in May adds another layer of uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Swiss National Bank are facing diverging pressures, with some nearing the end of their cutting cycles while others may be forced to hike as energy-driven inflation takes hold.

The same applies to the Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, People's Bank of China, and Reserve Bank of India, all navigating a rapidly shifting landscape.

Let's break down the major central banks' most recent rate decisions, commentary, and what to expect in the weeks ahead.

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