The Fed is confused and divided

This makes investing harder

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Global Markets Investor
September 18, 2025

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The Federal Reserve cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% on Wednesday, September 17, marking the first rate reduction of 2025. This ended a 9-month pause, the longest stretch without a move during the late-cut cycle since the early 2000s.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 in favor of the cut. Governor Stephen Miran, sworn on Tuesday, dissented, calling for a 50-basis point reduction.

Dissenting voices can show where debates exist. Under Powell, the Fed often pushed for unanimous decisions, which made it seem like everyone agreed even when there was real debate. Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller could have dissented—they wanted a 25-point cut back in July—but this time they voted with the majority. Their choice likely helped shape the statement, shifting the focus toward the labor market and away from inflation.

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Fed also maintains the current pace of balance sheet drawdown (Quantitative Tightening). The Federal Reserve is currently reducing its balance sheet at a set pace, with monthly caps of $5 billion for Treasury securities and $35 billion for agency and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

Behind the paywall, you’ll find a full recap of the meeting, including Chair Powell’s remarks and the implications for markets and the economy.

Links to the previous meetings' summaries can be found below.

The Fed is still waiting despite slowing economy

No rate cut, no clarity on what's next, the Fed is going to be too late as always

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-fed-is-still-waiting-despite-slowing-economy

The Fed is still clueless about the future path of rates and economy

There is no consensus among the Fed members regarding the future rates path

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-fed-is-still-clueless-about-the-future-path-of-rates-and-economy

The Fed is in no hurry to slash interest rates

The central bank is in "wait and see" mode amid historic economic uncertainty

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-fed-is-in-no-hurry-to-slash-interest-rates

🚨The Fed knows nothing, likewise the majority of market participants and watchers

The Fed kept the rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting on Wednesday

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-fed-knows-nothing-likewise-the-majority-of-market-participants-and-watchers

!!️The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut rates further - for now

The Fed kept they rates unchanged in the first meeting of 2024

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-federal-reserve-is-not-in-a-hurry

For the first time in history, top global central banks are reducing their balance sheets at the same time

What are the implications for the markets regarding one of the greatest monetary policy experiments?

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/for-the-first-time-in-history-top

FED’S STATEMENT, PROJECTIONS, DOT-PLOT

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