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- 🚨Tensions between the US and Iran are rising
🚨Tensions between the US and Iran are rising
Markets are pricing in war as the most likely outcome
Global Markets Investor
February 20, 2026
In partnership with
GLOBAL MARKETS INVESTOR’S PORTFOLIO IS 🔥UP +95%🔥SINCE JANUARY 2024
DURING THE MARCH-APRIL 2025 MARKET TURMOIL, MAJOR US INDEXES FELL NEARLY 20%, WHILE THE GMI PORTFOLIO GAINED OVER 5%, FIND OUT HOW BELOW:
President Trump is weighing an initial limited strike on Iran to force Tehran to meet demands for a nuclear deal, according to WSJ.
If Iran refuses to comply with the directive to end nuclear enrichment, the US would respond with a broad campaign against regime facilities.
Meanwhile, Iran sent a letter to the UN Chief, stating that if subjected to military aggression, all bases, facilities, and assets of the "hostile force" in the region will be legitimate targets.
At the same time, Iran stated it does not seek tensions or war and will not initiate conflict.
Meanwhile, Polymarket odds of the US striking Iran by March 31 have surged to 61%, up +30 percentage points from the recent low, with over $322 million in volume traded.
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This comes after Axios reporting on Wednesday that Israel is preparing for a scenario of "war within days," with a joint US-Israeli campaign expected to be a weeks-long, full-scale military operation.
The US military buildup now includes 2 aircraft carriers, 12 warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and multiple air defense systems.
Over 150 US military cargo flights have moved weapons and ammunition to the Middle East, with another 50 fighter jets deployed in just the last 24 hours.
Nuclear talks in Geneva on Tuesday "made progress," but major gaps remain and US officials are not optimistic about closing them.
A Trump adviser told Axios there is a "90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks."
Obviously, US-Iran tensions are raising concerns over the Strait of Hormuz.
Why the Strait of Hormuz is the most critical waterway in the world?
The strait connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and handles ~16.7 million barrels of crude per day, or ~25% of the world's seaborne oil trade.
Nearly a 5th of all global LNG supply, mostly from Qatar, also passes through this channel.
At just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, with shipping lanes only 2 miles wide, vessels are highly vulnerable to mines, missiles, drones, and GPS jamming from the Iranian coastline.
Iran has never fully closed the strait but has multiple ways to severely disrupt it without deploying a single warship.
Blocking the strait for just 1 day could send oil prices to $120–$150 a barrel, compared to the current WTI price of ~$66. That would also tank equity markets because it would ignite a global risk-off shock as investors price in recession risks, geopolitical escalation, and collapsing consumer spending power from surging energy costs.
Saudi Arabia relies on the strait the most but has a backup: a 746-mile pipeline to the Red Sea capable of carrying 5 million barrels per day.
Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Iran itself have no alternative routes.
Ironically, Iran shipped more crude through the strait in 2025 than at any point since 2018, meaning a closure would also cripple its own economy, and risk damaging its relationship with China, its largest oil buyer and a critical geopolitical ally.
A full-scale disruption of the Strait of Hormuz remains the single biggest tail risk for global energy markets, though a full closure remains unlikely.
Overall, if a war breaks out, it would mark the most significant US military intervention in the Middle East in at least a decade.
If you are trading with leverage, staying away from long stocks over the weekend would be the best choice.
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