Strait of Hormuz traffic is picking up, but remains a fraction of pre-war levels

Traffic is rising, but Iran holds the keys

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15 ships crossed the Strait in the last 24 hours, the highest volume in weeks, as countries including Iraq and India strike deals with Iran for safe passage.

However, pre-war traffic averaged ~100-130 ships per day, meaning current volumes are still down ~90%.

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Iran continues to tighten control over the chokepoint, charging transit fees and granting selective exemptions while blocking US and Israeli-linked vessels.

In recent days, Tehran has permitted passage of vessels from countries seen as close to the US, including France and Japan, but no known Qatar-linked energy vessels have gone through the Strait.

The IRGC Navy warned that the waterway will "never return to its previous condition" and is preparing to enforce a new security order across the Persian Gulf.

Meanwhile, two Qatari LNG tankers, Al Daayen and Rasheeda, attempted to exit the Strait but abruptly turned around, with no explanation given.

A successful transit would have marked the first LNG exports from the Gulf since the conflict began in late February, a critical test for Qatar, which supplied nearly 20% of global LNG last year.

Traffic is slowly resuming, but every ship that crosses does so on Iran's terms.

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