S&P 500 rose for the 4th straight week. Weekly market recap, trading week 18/2025

Summary of the trading week using the most popular posts from the X platform

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In this series, you can find financial markets posts with the highest number of interactions from my X platform feed over the most recent week. I am aware that not everybody uses X regularly, so I thought it could provide some value to your analysis, and investment process. These posts are also surrounded by commentary and explanations of complicated topics.

The S&P 500 has rallied for 9 straight days, posting the longest streak since November 2004. The index has recovered all post-April 2nd Liberation Day losses and is up 18% since its low.

The recent rally has been driven by hopes that the US and China will soon start talking to halt the trade war. It has also been supported by some positive earnings beats.

Meanwhile, retail investors have been net equity buyers for 19 straight weeks, the longest streak to start a year, according to JPMorgan’s data going back to 2008.

The US economy shrank in Q1 2025, but is this really that bad?

Is the US economy in a recession?

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-economy-shrank-in-q1-2025-but-is-this-really-that-bad

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway cash balance hit a record $347.7 billion in Q1 2025

The greatest investor of all time is stepping down as CEO by the end 2025 after 55 years

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-warren-buffett-s-berkshire-hathaway-cash-balance-hit-a-record-347-7-billion-in-q1

⚠️Chinese investors are liquidating their gold positions

Gold prices have fallen ~8% since their peak

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chinese-investors-are-liquidating-their-gold-positions

🚨Is the S&P 500 heading for another leg down?

The market has seen some relief, but fundamentally, nothing has changed.

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-the-s-p-500-heading-for-another-leg-down

INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO UPDATE (April 29, 2025)

Please find out an update about my market positioning - only for Founding Members

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/investment-portfolio-update-april-29-2025

⚠️US stocks are experiencing one of the worst starts to the year in history

The US stock market is lagging world stocks

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-are-experiencing-one-of-the-worst-starts-to-the-year-in-history

1) Weekly performance. In the first screenshot attached, you can see last week’s performance of the major US indexes, the VIX volatility index, gold, and Bitcoin.

- S&P 500 jumped 2.9%
- Nasdaq index soared 3.4%
- Dow Jones rose 3.0%
- Russell 2000 (small caps) advanced 3.1%
- US 10-year Treasury yield increased 6 bps
- VIX fell 9%
- US Dollar index rose 0.5%
- WTI Crude Oil dropped 7.1%
- Silver declined 3.3%
- Gold fell 1.7%

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Will the gold outperformance of the S&P 500 continue for years?

Food for thought regarding gold and the S&P 500 relative performance

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/chart-of-the-week-will-the-gold-outperformance-of-the-s-p-500-continue-for-years

!?️Is this a time to be cautious about gold?

Short-term and long-term perspectives for the world's most desired metal.

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-this-a-time-to-be-cautious-about-gold

- Bitcoin rose 2.4%

Is Bitcoin going to $1,000,000?

What to expect from the world's largest cryptocurrency in the coming months and years

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-bitcoin-going-to-1000000

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For the trading week ending May 9, key events are:

- US S&P Global Services PMI for April on Monday

- US ISM Services PMI for April on Monday

- Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday

- Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference on Wednesday

- At least 6 Fed speakers on Friday

- ~10% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 2025 earnings

The Fed meeting will likely be in focus, as well as the US Services PMI data. Notably, the market is seeing just a 3% chance of a rate cut on Wednesday. Therefore, all eyes will be on forward guidance provided by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the press conference.

Previous meeting recap below:

🚨The Fed knows nothing, likewise the majority of market participants and watchers

The Fed kept the rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting on Wednesday

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-fed-knows-nothing-likewise-the-majority-of-market-participants-and-watchers

2) The level of hedge funds’ bearishness is truly historic. On the other hand, retail investors posted another record of buying:

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