S&P 500 fell in 4 out of the last 5 weeks. Weekly market recap, trading week 02/2025

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In this series, you can find financial markets posts with the highest number of interactions from my X platform feed over the most recent week. I am aware that not everybody uses X regularly so I thought it could provide some value to your analysis, and investment process. These posts are also surrounded by commentary and explanations of complicated topics.

US stocks went through a pretty rough week as long-term government bond yields continued to rise. As highlighted in previous market recaps, rising Treasury yields will eventually matter for stocks and it did. The S&P 500 dropped 2% last week and is now trading at key technical levels. Notably, the Russell 2000 of small caps is down 10% since the peak, entering an official correction. It will be an interesting week ahead. Make or break?

1) Weekly performance. In the first screenshot attached, you can see last week’s performance of the major US indexes, the VIX volatility index, gold, and Bitcoin.

- S&P 500 tumbled 2.0%- Nasdaq index dropped 2.4%- Dow Jones was down 1.9%- Russell 2000 (small caps) fell 3.6%- VIX jumped 21%- WTI Crude Oil rose 3.7%- Silver spiked 4.2%- Gold jumped 2.4%

- Bitcoin fell by 2.2%

For the trading week ending January 17, key events are:

- US PPI Inflation for December on Tuesday

- US CPI Inflation for December on Wednesday

- US Retail Sales for December on Thursday

- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing for January on Thursday

- US Housing Starts for December on Friday

- US Industrial Production for December on Friday

- ~7 Fed speakers

CPI inflation data will be key to watch. The hot print will make the Treasury yields and the US dollar rise further and the market pullback to continue.

2) This chart should scare the hell out of every investor in the world:

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