- Global Markets Investor
- Posts
- Physical, real-world oil prices are surging even as futures fall
Physical, real-world oil prices are surging even as futures fall
The energy crisis is nowhere near the end
Global Markets Investor
April 15, 2026
GLOBAL MARKETS INVESTOR’S PORTFOLIO IS 🔥UP +93%🔥SINCE JANUARY 2024
DURING THE MARCH-APRIL 2025 MARKET TURMOIL, MAJOR US INDEXES FELL NEARLY 20%, WHILE THE GMI PORTFOLIO GAINED OVER 5%, FIND OUT HOW BELOW:
The physical oil market is flashing unprecedented stress.
Dated Brent, the benchmark used to price most of the world's seaborne crude, has more than doubled since the beginning of the year and has officially exceeded its Great Financial Crisis peak.
Because it reflects the cost of real, immediately deliverable barrels, Dated Brent is the most important indicator of how tight the physical oil market is right now.
At the same time, the nearest Brent futures contract for June delivery is trading at ~$96 a barrel, creating a spread of ~$35 a barrel between physical and futures prices, compared to a historical norm of $1-2.
This comes as ~13 million barrels per day of supply remains missing from the market, forcing European and Asian refiners to compete aggressively for whatever cargoes are available.
The historic gap signals a market that cannot source enough barrels for immediate delivery, even as futures prices assume supply will normalize later.
Meanwhile, the IEA now expects global oil demand to contract by -80,000 barrels per day in 2026, a reversal of -810,000 barrels per day from its prior forecast of +730,000 barrels per day, according to its latest Oil Market Report.
A projected demand contraction of -1.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 would mark the deepest decline since the 2020 Crisis.
This comes as global observed oil stocks fell by -85 million barrels in March, with oil-importing nations scrambling for replacement supply as physical crude prices, as mentioned above, surged far above futures prices.
Demand destruction has hit the Middle East and Asia-Pacific hardest, with naphtha, LPG, and jet fuel seeing the steepest declines, as petrochemical plants cut operating rates and households faced fuel shortages.
In a severe scenario, the IEA warns the prolonged conflict could drain almost 2 billion barrels from global stocks and force demand down by -5 million barrels per day on average between Q2 and Q4 2026.
The oil shock is translating to a demand destruction story.
If you find it informative and helpful, consider a paid subscription or become a Founding Member, and follow me on Twitter or Nostr:
Reply