⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: US oil exports hit another all-time high

US oil exports are surging as the Iran war reshapes global energy flows

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Total US crude oil and petroleum product exports rose to a record 12.9 million barrels per day last week, up +2.5 million barrels per day since the start of the Iran war.

US petroleum product exports alone rose to a record 8.1 million barrels per day, with total exports having doubled since January 2022.

This comes as Asian and European nations scramble to secure alternative supply following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which previously carried ~20% of global daily oil flows.

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Obviously, as a result of the blockade, Gulf crude production has collapsed since the start of the Iran war.

Oil output from Persian Gulf nations is running 14.5 million barrels per day BELOW pre-war levels in April, a -57% decline, according to Goldman Sachs.

Saudi Arabia accounts for the largest estimated loss at 4.0 million barrels per day, followed by Iraq at 3.0 million barrels per day, the UAE at 2.7 million barrels per day, and Iran at 2.5 million barrels per day.

Goldman warns that even a full and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would take "a few months" to restore output, with the recovery pace slowing the longer the strait remains effectively closed.

This comes as Brent crude traded near $105 per barrel on Friday, up +$33 per barrel since before the war erupted, though still below the conflict high of ~$120.

With traffic through Hormuz all but frozen and both sides maintaining rival blockades, a rapid supply recovery looks increasingly unlikely.

Every week of continued closure makes the road back longer and oil prices higher.

Overall, how much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?

Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 billion barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.

China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.

Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.

Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.

The world is replacing Iranian oil with American oil.

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