⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: The S&P 500 is pricing in a recession - for now

What does history say about historical market corrections?

Author

Global Markets Investor
March 22, 2025

The S&P 500 has declined 7.8% since its February peak. At some point last week, the index was down as much as 10%.

Historically, if equities continued their declines and fell at least 5% on average within the next 5 months the US economy was in a recession.

On the other hand, if the S&P 500 recovered the losses within the next 4-5 months a downturn was avoided.

This data is an average. Therefore, if the economy, indeed falls into a recession the US stock market may experience at least a 20% drawdown.

Sometimes, however, the market falls over 20% and a recession is avoided as was the case in 2022.

S&P 500 declined for the 4th straight week. Weekly market recap, trading week 11/2025

Summary of the trading week using the most popular posts from the X platform

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/s-p-500-declined-for-the-3rd-straight-week-matching-the-july-2024-streak-weekly-market-recap-trading-626c

INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO UPDATE (March 18, 2025)

Please find out an update about my market positioning - only for Founding Members

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/investment-portfolio-update-march-18-2025

🚨US layoffs are surging at a recessionary pace

February job report showed a lot of labor market weakness

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-layoffs-are-surging-at-a-recessionary-pace

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