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  • ⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: The gap between the S&P 500 and weakening job market is widening

⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: The gap between the S&P 500 and weakening job market is widening

Will the market eventually notice?

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Global Markets Investor
September 20, 2025

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🔥🔥 GLOBAL MARKETS INVESTOR PORTFOLIO — UP 40% SINCE JANUARY 2024, DURING THE MARCH-APRIL 2025 MARKET TURMOIL, MAJOR US INDEXES FELL NEARLY 20%, WHILE THE GMI PORTFOLIO GAINED OVER 5%, FIND OUT HOW BELOW:

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US labor market conditions measured by the Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Index have deteriorated to their lowest level in 8 years, excluding the 2020 Crisis.

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This index measures the job market strength based on 24 indicators. In previous economic cycles, this metric has been a leading indicator for the US unemployment rate.

The recent decline suggests that more job losses are likely coming over the next several months.

Historically, weakening job market conditions have also preceded stock market declines.

Once job market weakness becomes more evident in widely watched indicators, such as the unemployment rate and job creation (non-farm payrolls), and investors believe the Fed is too late with their rate cuts (due to the lag effect), the stock market will eventually take notice.

🚨The US labor market just saw the biggest downward revision on record

The US job market is falling apart

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-labor-market-just-saw-the-biggest-downward-revision-on-record

🚨US recession probabilities are surging

Is the US economy already in a recession?

globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-recession-probabilities-are-surging

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