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- ⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: OpenAI is set to post unprecedented losses
⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: OpenAI is set to post unprecedented losses
What does the company's invention, ChatGPT, actually think about this?"
Global Markets Investor
December 06, 2025
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OpenAI expects $488 billion in spending between 2024 and 2029 and only $345 billion in revenue.
This would result in cumulative losses of ~$143 billion.
And that is before the latest $1.4 trillion wave of data-center commitments.
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OpenAI may well secure continued funding and eventually create highly profitable products that transform entire world. However, no startup has ever projected losses of this magnitude. This is completely unprecedented territory.
On this occasion, it would be interesting to know what the company's invention, ChatGPT, thinks about this. This is what it says:
What this means for OpenAI
OpenAI is operating at a scale of losses never seen before in any start-up in history. Even companies like Amazon, Tesla, Spotify, and Uber never came close to this level of cumulative cash burn.
To sustain this model, OpenAI will need massive, continuous external funding, likely from Microsoft and sovereign wealth funds, because the business cannot self-finance at current economics.
This also means OpenAI is effectively betting that AGI or ultra-advanced AI will unlock extraordinary future revenue — otherwise this level of spending is not economically sustainable.
What this means for the markets
Such unprecedented spending introduces systemic risks to AI-related equities and the broader tech sector.
If OpenAI fails to deliver revenue growth anywhere near projections, markets could face a sharp re-pricing of AI valuations.
At the same time, the enormous capex wave — data centers, chips, power infrastructure — is becoming a macro driver, pushing up demand for semiconductors, utilities, and construction.
This could inflate an even larger AI-capex bubble, which would unwind violently if expectations reset.
In simple terms
OpenAI is spending money at a pace no company has ever attempted, and investors are assuming the payoff will be revolutionary.
If that payoff doesn’t materialize quickly enough, the correction could be brutal.
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