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- ⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: OpenAI is paying massive stock-based compensation to its employees
⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: OpenAI is paying massive stock-based compensation to its employees
OpenAI is playing with fire.
Global Markets Investor
January 03, 2026
In partnership with
🔥GLOBAL MARKETS INVESTOR’S PORTFOLIO IS UP +72% SINCE JANUARY 2024
DURING THE MARCH-APRIL 2025 MARKET TURMOIL, MAJOR US INDEXES FELL NEARLY 20%, WHILE THE GMI PORTFOLIO GAINED OVER 5%, FIND OUT HOW BELOW:
OpenAI is paying $1.5 million per employee in stock-based compensation to 4,000 workers. This is ~46% of the firm’s projected 2025 revenue. By comparison, Google’s percentage was 14.6% before its IPO.
This is also 34 times higher than the average employee at major tech companies before they went public.
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It seems OpenAI is betting heavily on long-term growth, expecting huge returns.
However, these massive payouts come with consequences, driving higher operating losses and diluting existing investors. If revenue slows or valuations decline, the company could face internal conflict between investors, leadership, and employees. This comes as the expense is recorded now, even though the shares are paid later.
A valuation correction or funding squeeze could quickly turn these stock obligations into a cash-flow problem, a forced restructuring, or a consolidation or sale to a larger company. If employees feel their equity is becoming worthless, they may demand retention bonuses, cash raises, or other cash incentives.
Overall, paying ~$6 billion in stock compensation (4,000 × $1.5 million) against projected 2025 revenue means nearly half their revenue is vaporized before other expenses.
This is dangerously high for a company not yet profitable.
Meanwhile, it looks like investors are already losing faith in OpenAI leadership in the space.
OpenAI related stocks have fallen over -60% since their October peak.
During this period, AMD, Microsoft and NVIDIA stocks have declined -19%, -11% and -10%, among others. Since late November 2024, these stocks are up just +42%.
Meanwhile, Google-related stocks are up +171%, or 4 times more over the same period.
The AI trade is becoming more selective than ever.
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