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- ⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Brent crude oil prices could explode to $164 per barrel
⚠️CHART OF THE WEEK: Brent crude oil prices could explode to $164 per barrel
What is going to happen to the oil market?
Global Markets Investor
March 14, 2026
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GLOBAL MARKETS INVESTOR’S PORTFOLIO IS 🔥UP +97%🔥SINCE JANUARY 2024
DURING THE MARCH-APRIL 2025 MARKET TURMOIL, MAJOR US INDEXES FELL NEARLY 20%, WHILE THE GMI PORTFOLIO GAINED OVER 5%, FIND OUT HOW BELOW:
Brent crude oil prices could surge to as much to $164 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed for 3 months, according to Bloomberg analysis. The 2-month closure would make prices going up to ~$140.
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This analysis comes as the US Navy is weeks away from escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Navy could begin escort missions by the end of March, but added "we're simply not ready" as military assets remain focused on destroying Iranian offensive capabilities.
Meanwhile, Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said the strait should remain shut, signaling Tehran has no intention of reopening the waterway.
Since the war began on February 28, trade through Hormuz has nearly stopped, sending crude prices surging +40% with futures briefly jumping above $100 per barrel again.
Meanwhile, the US announced it would release 172 million barrels from its SPR as part of a coordinated global effort to ease prices, while planning to swap them for 200+ million barrels at lower future prices.
Trump downplayed the oil spike, posting that "when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money" given the US is the world's largest producer.
Fully reopening the strait may ultimately require some form of ground operation to secure the Iranian coastline adjacent to it.
On the other hand, Iran is exporting more oil now than before the war.
Iranian crude oil loadings are averaging 2.1 million barrels per day since the conflict began, exceeding the 2.0 million barrels per day exported in early February, according to Kpler.
9 tankers have loaded Iranian oil and departed the Persian Gulf since February 28, with most heading to China.
Iran is reportedly weighing a plan to allow a limited number of oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, on the condition that the cargo is traded in Chinese yuan, a senior Iranian official told CNN.
At least 13.7 million barrels of Iranian crude have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war.
This comes as the IRGC has targeted at least 15 vessels for ignoring warnings about the strait's closure, while major shipping companies have halted all operations in the region.
Goldman Sachs now expects the strait to remain at just 3% of normal flow for 21 days, double its previous estimate of 10 days, followed by a 30-day gradual recovery back to full capacity.
Tehran has effectively turned the Strait of Hormuz into its own exclusive shipping lane, exporting freely while blocking everyone else.
Meanwhile, institutional investors bets on rising oil prices are at record.
Hedge fund long positions on Brent crude oil futures stands at the highest since February 2020, according to ICE Futures Europe data while bullish bets on WTI crude oil spiked to an 8-month high, according to CFTC data.
Commodity trading advisers (CTAs), the algorithm-driven trend followers, are now 100% long in both WTI and Brent futures. This is the first time this has occurred in US crude oil since September 2021, when the position lasted 26 trading sessions, and in Brent since April 2024.
At the same time, oil options markets are pricing in even more upside risk.
WTI Crude Oil 2nd-month implied volatility is up to ~130%, the highest since the 2020 Crisis. The 25-delta call-put skew has surged to ~35 points, the most bullish reading in data going back to 2015.
This means investors are paying a historic premium for bets on higher oil prices over bets on lower prices.
This even exceeds the peak levels seen during the 2022 energy crisis.
In other words, investors are pricing in the risk of a prolonged Hormuz shutdown, further attacks on Gulf oil infrastructure, and a supply disruption that could outlast the war itself.
Options traders are betting that the worst of the supply energy shock is still ahead.
Lastly, In a major escalation, the US carried out airstrikes on Kharg Island, the terminal that handles more than 90% of Iran crude exports.
While the strikes reportedly targeted military assets rather than oil infrastructure, Tehran has previously warned that attacks on the island would cross a red line and could trigger retaliatory strikes on energy facilities across the Persian Gulf.
Any disruption at Kharg Island would threaten one of the most critical oil export hubs in the world, significantly amplifying the global supply shock already developing around the Strait of Hormuz. Here is also an interesting take about it:
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, escorts are weeks away, and investors are heavily positioned for higher prices. How much of the news is already priced in? What is going to happen to the oil market?
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